Seasonality Map for October, 2011
This is a monthly feature at the MarketSci Blog.
Below is a map of potentially strong/weak days for the US stock market in October based on historical seasonality patterns. Read more after the image.
Scorecard: since launching in April 2010, the monthly seasonality map has called the closing direction of the S&P 500 correct 49% of the time with winning predictions 1.3x losing ones (solidly outperforming 55%/0.8x for buy & hold).
The large vs small cap map (see below) has, since launching in January 2011, called large caps relative to small caps correctly 56% of the time with winning predictions 1.1x losing ones (outperforming either neutral pair).
Click for a more detailed look at the real-time performance of the Map.
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About the Monthly Seasonality Map
One of the unexpected side effects of keeping this blog is I’ve become a proponent of seasonality (i.e. bullish/bearish biases around certain times of the month, year, etc). The Map forces me to tie my seasonality studies together every month.
The studies included are: (a) the turn of the month, (b) the first and last day of the month, (c) the day-after options expiration, (d) the monthly W, (e) individual holidays, (f) scheduled Fed meetings, and (g) strong/weak calendar months.
To be clear, I do NOT think that seasonality alone is sufficient to justify a trade; however, all of the seasonality plays included in this report have been consistent enough that I do think they should be one of many tools in the trader’s toolbox.
Some observations have been stronger than others, so I’ve rated each from -100% (most bearish) to +100% (most bullish). Very low ratings (+/- 25%) indicate the play has been inconsistent and should be viewed with an extra skeptical eye.
This is a constantly evolving work and reader input is always appreciated.
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Large vs Small-Cap Seasonality Map
Note that these seasonality biases only exist after adjusting for differences in volatility between large caps and small caps (AKA “market neutral” or “beta neutral”) so they are only relevant to either (a) pairs trading, or (b) choosing between large and small caps after an investor already had a view on the market as a whole (read more).
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