January: Bullishness on the Wane?
The end of December is nigh. Here’s a quick look at how the U.S. market has performed historically in January.
First the (misleading) numbers…
From this 30,000 foot view, January has solidly outperformed the average month, with almost twice the average and median return (at less volatility).
But averages can be misleading because they say nothing about how consistent an observation has been or whether it’s waxing or waning, so below I’ve assumed a trader was only long the S&P 500 in January (red) versus the average month (grey) each year since 1930.
The graph shows that January has outperformed the average month with some consistency over the last 80 years.
What isn’t clear from the graph is that this outperformance has waned in recent history. Below is the same test starting in 2000 (January red, average month grey).
January has not impressed over the last decade.
Some of this is no doubt a result of the general weakness in the market since 2000, but still, January bullishness is questionable.
Like all seasonality plays, this one has by no means been a sure thing and doesn’t by itself justify a trade, but because January bullishness has been on the wane, I’m calling the calendar month bias for January NEUTRAL.
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Filed under: Time-based | 6 Comments